The Town of Snowmass Village, the Wildfire Collaborative Roaring Fork Valley, and Roaring Fork Fire Rescue are launching a wildfire risk modeling project in Snowmass Village that will help the community better understand its exposure to wildfire and identify the most effective steps to protect homes and neighborhoods.
At the center of the effort is the AGNI-NAR model (Asynchronous Graph Nexus Infrastructure for Network Assessment of Wildland-Urban Interface Risk), developed by Dr. Hussam Mahmoud, Craig E. Philip Endowed Chair of Engineering, Professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering, and Director of the Vanderbilt Center for Sustainability, Energy, and Climate. AGNI-NAR is a graph-theory-based model that represents homes and vegetation as “nodes” in an interconnected network to simulate how fire spreads through both the natural landscape and the built environment. Unlike traditional models, AGNI-NAR simulates how a fire could move through both the landscape and the built environment— as influenced by details such as wind speed and direction to capture home-to-home ignition, where embers will land, and potential evacuation challenges.
“This model goes beyond predicting flames on a map—it integrates fire behavior, infrastructure vulnerability, and community layout to simulate how wildfire interacts with the built environment and open space fuel,” said Dr. Hussam Mahmoud. “By combining this science with local data from homeowners, Snowmass Village will gain a clear, evidence-based understanding of which areas and structures are most vulnerable — and which mitigation strategies will most effectively reduce risk.”
The model has been scientifically validated against real-world fire events, including California’s 2018 Camp Fire and Colorado’s 2021 Marshall Fire, showing an impressive 85% accuracy in predicting the path of wildfire and the resulting damage.
“This project puts Snowmass Village at the forefront of wildfire resilience,” said Alyssa Shenk, Mayor of Snowmass Village. “The results will give us clear, science-based guidance on which wildfire resiliency projects will most effectively protect our community. That information is critical as we work with the Wildfire Collaborative and Roaring Fork Fire to make decisions and invest in the work needed to reduce wildfire risk.”
Snowmass Village residents are encouraged to participate by completing a short survey that collects home-level details, such as roof type, vegetation levels, etc., essential to the model’s accuracy. The more residents who respond, the better the model can reflect the community’s real conditions and produce results that guide effective action. The survey can be found here: Snowmass Wildfire Risk Survey. Over the coming weeks, HOA and community meetings across Snowmass Village will help build awareness and ensure broad participation in the data collection effort.
“Snowmass Village faces some of the highest wildfire risk in the Roaring Fork Valley, with homes and forests intertwined,” said Angie Davlyn, Executive Director of the Wildfire Collaborative Roaring Fork Valley. “The Wildfire Collaborative is putting advanced wildfire modeling at the center of our work, because it gives communities like Snowmass a data-based roadmap for action. Out of this project, the Town will have a clear understanding of the wildfire mitigation strategies—such as fire breaks and strategic fuels reduction—that will best protect residents and neighborhoods, and then we can work together to put those measures in place.”
The Collaborative and Dr. Mahmoud’s team are also conducting similar modeling in Marble and in the Three Mile and Four Mile areas of Glenwood Springs. While Dr. Mahmoud is working with communities across the country, the Roaring Fork Valley projects are at the forefront of this science because they are the first in the nation to integrate evacuation planning into wildfire modeling alongside building damage and mitigation strategies.
“The risk is real, and the stakes are high,” added John Mele, Fire Marshall of Roaring Fork Fire Rescue. “This model gives us a science-based tool to understand how wildfire could move through Snowmass Village and to prioritize the actions that will have the biggest impact. Community participation is essential to making it work.”
The project is part of a broader effort by the Wildfire Collaborative Roaring Fork Valley, a regional partnership formed in 2022 to unite fire agencies, local governments, and community organizations around a shared strategy for wildfire resilience. By combining science, collaboration, and on-the-ground action, the Collaborative is helping communities like Snowmass identify the highest-impact mitigation projects and move them forward.